One Number to Rule Them All (2- Information)
We continue our exploration of the number “Three” in the field of risk management (first part here)
2- Information
Intrinsically, the “Three” is not more meaningful than, let say, the Zero, the One, or the Two. Data or counts based on these figures may carry a lot of information too. But in the series of numbers, the Three is critical, as it brings a change in the nature of information, as it is the smallest number from which patterns can be deducted.
“Three” sets the rate
When it is necessary to perform actions simultaneously, counting to three is often used for this purpose. In many situations, simultaneity is achieved by “On the count of three… One, two, …” whatever action needs to be performed by synchronized efforts.
A consistent rhythm in counting will help to predict the right time for action. Three is the minimum count to set this rate and help co-performers to prepare for synchronized moves.
In an emergency or when there is only one chance to perform a critical action, the “Count of Three” is universally useful.
Special Tip: there is always a risk of confusion/misunderstanding, used as a joke in funny comedies since the silver screen time: “We push on three, ok? One, two, three!”… and it’s a funny disorder, some pushing precisely on the third mark, others waiting for the end of the shouting of the Three. In some situations, this one-second delay could have harmful consequences.
So, let’s be clear: Unless otherwise specified before, action must start immediately on the word “Three”, not after (not on a fourth beat). “Three” is the trigger!
“Three” sets the trend
In the unusual situation of the COVID19 that we are experiencing now, we are all exposed to a never-ending flow of graphs, statistics, trend lines, data projection curves, etc.… in newspapers, TV reports, and internet sources, etc.… To understand and predict the dynamics of the pandemic, we are fascinated by the lines of dots, representing the daily situations, and we play the risky game to try to predict the future of the curves (it’s so much easier to predict the past…).
So, this is quite obvious: a succession of two points is theoretically enough to draw a line, therefore, to extrapolate about where should be the next one… but we commonly see daily variations, ups, and downs. One single change, on one day from the previous day, does not prove anything. It takes at least two consecutive moves in the same direction to read a possible trend.
There are, of course, variations at different scales that will contradict the possible trend, and three points showing a pattern are no guarantee that it will continue that way. But it is a simple logical statement: You need two moves in the same direction to set the trend. Therefore, you need three points to compare (Remember, the lesson on intervals in school?).
Obvious disclaimer: Any statistician reading the above will be upset. The scientific method to find trends in a collection of data is by far more complex. For instance, doing a regression analysis between time and cases with a set of three data does not make sense. Or the commonly used Mann-Kendall Trend Test requires a minimum collection of 5 samples to be applied in theory but will not be judged valid with so few data. So, we apologize for oversimplifying the concept of trend analysis. It is a common bias to welcome as a trend any single new record going the expected way. Ceteris paribus, we should at least consider two consecutive moves, meaning a set of three data aligned.
The Noble Number
According to the Pythagoreans, this number three is above all the others in quality, especially for its internal perfection:
- It equals the sum of all the terms below it:
1 + 2 = 3 (they did not include zero, but it works anyway)
- And both the sum and the product of itself and the terms below it are equal:
1 + 2 + 3 = 6 = 1 x 2 x 3 (it would not work with zero taken into account!)
Our “TAPS Tips” (like in “short advice” or “summit of the mountain”) are summaries or examples, featuring topics of general interest as simplified illustration of the content of our Total Awareness Training System.
The INT2PLAN Team